John Plumtree Can John Plumtree's Sharks side turn things around against the Lions on Saturday? Photo: BackpagePix
Image: BackpagePix
IOL Sport rugby writer Mike Greenaway picks this weekend’s rugby winners...
Sharks v Lions in Durban, 2pm on Saturday
Last week the Sharks mentally did not pitch at Ellis Park, and with the Lions in the opposite frame of mind, a blow out ensued.
We can safely say that the Sharks will not be slow out of the blocks in the return encounter. They would have had a rocket from their coaching staff.
A big factor in this sole United Rugby Championship fixture of the weekend will be the very different conditions in Durban compared to Johannesburg. It is stinking hot on the east coast, and the expected temperature of 31 degrees will be exacerbated by the 90 percent humidity for a real feel over 35 degrees.
Betting angle
Last week the bookies were unsure who would win the match, but this week, they are convinced it will be the Sharks. This would be because of the expected backlash and home-ground advantage, which includes familiarity with the humid conditions.
If you put R100 on the Sharks at Hollywoodbets, you will win R35, while the same figure on the Lions will earn a profit of R235.
I think the bookies are being a little too kind to the Sharks and not giving the Lions adequate respect. This game will be a lot closer than people think, and last year’s corresponding fixture, in similar January heat, saw the Lions inch home 20-18.
I reckon it will be a similar score-line on Saturday. I will be backing the Lions on the plus handicap.
If you put R100 on the Lions to not lose by more than 6.5 points (the bet will also pay out if they win), you will win R90 plus your stake back.
A safer bet is to take the Lions on the +12.5 handicap. I reckon the Lions, if they don’t win, will finish within 12.5 of the Sharks. This bet is safer, but pays less – R40 profit on a R100 bet.
Six Nations
Match of the Day
Ireland v France in Dublin, 4.15pm on Saturday
At the 2023 World Cup, this match-up was seen as the dream final, only for both teams to crash out in the quarter-final. Well, they have their “final” now, with the winner certain to win the Six Nations.
Both sides are unbeaten and in fine form. Ireland are marginal favourites, and when you consider how vocal the Dublin support is, that is a mark of respect to the free-wheeling French. It is difficult to pick a winner, and a good betting angle at Hollywoodbets is to bet on the total points scored in the match.
The bet that caught my eye is the “under 51.5”. This means that the combined points the teams score won’t exceed 51.5.
Yes, both teams are excellent on attack and score plenty of tries, but they also have excellent defences, and they could well cancel each other out on attack in a tight encounter. If this bet is successful, R100 will win R40.