Study reveals why matriculants’ future remains bleak

ONE in every two recent matriculants was not working, studying, or participating in a training programme in the first quarter of last year.

This is according to a new Stellenbosch University report, which also found that where you live matters for post-matriculation opportunities.

The report shows opportunities for work and study after matric remained limited, and rising numbers of youth leaving school with a matric not being met with enough opportunities.

Titled “School completion, the matric and post-school transitions in South Africa”, the report investigated school completion trends in South Africa, matric performance and youth transitions beyond school with a particular focus on recent matriculants. It compiled research from several studies commissioned within the COVID-Generation Project, made possible by financial support from Allan and Gill Gray Philanthropies.

“This study highlights how increasingly larger proportions of recent matriculants find themselves unable to access meaningful opportunities. The rising numbers of youth leaving school with a matric, particularly in recent years, is not being met with enough opportunities beyond school — whether in work or in post-school education and training (PSET),” said Dr Gabrielle Wills from the Research on Socio-Economic Policy Group (RESEP) in the Department of Economics at SU. She wrote the report with contributions from colleagues Rebecca Selkirk and John Kruger.

“Conditions in South Africa's labour market must improve and further expansion in quality PSET is required for the country to realise the benefits of rising educational attainment and progress for national development,” adds Wills.

She pointed out that one of every two recent matriculants, defined as 15-24-year-olds with 12 years of completed schooling, in the first quarter of 2024 was ‘Not in employment, education or training’ (NEET).

“Before the COVID-19 pandemic (2014–2019), around 44–45% of recent matriculants were classified as NEET. This figure peaked at a staggering 55% in early 2022 and remained alarmingly high at 49.8% at the start of 2024. These trends mirror broader increases in NEET rates among all youth aged 15-24, which have risen from 32.2% in the first quarter of 2014 to 35.4% in the first quarter of 2024.

“Even larger NEET rate increases were seen for youth aged 25-34, rising from 45% in the first quarter of 2014 to 52% in the first quarter of 2024. This is a concern where NEET status is associated with worse mental health, particularly among young men.”

Despite rising NEET rates among recent matriculants in the past decade, obtaining a matric qualification remains important, said Wills.

“Nearly half (5 out of 10) of matriculants aged 15-24 were classified as NEET in the first quarter of 2024. But almost 8 out of 10 of their peers who had dropped out of school were NEET. The prospects of finding a job, and what you can earn in that job, with a matric also remain much higher than not having a matric but there is a much larger and growing advantage to having a post-school qualification over having a matric.”

According to Wills, where you live matters for post-matriculation opportunities.

“For instance, among 15-24-year-olds with a matric living in the Western Cape in 2023/24, about a third were NEET compared to 61% of their peers in Mpumalanga and two-thirds (68%) of their peers in North West.”Recent matriculants who are NEET are now more likely to find themselves among the long-term unemployed, she said.

“The road to opportunity beyond school is harder and more hazardous than it was a decade ago when finding a job was easier for matriculants than it will be for the matric class of 2024. In 2014, 27% of NEET youth aged 15-24 with a matric had been searching for work for over a year. By the first quarter of 2020, this had increased to nearly 33% and remained significantly elevated at 32% in the first quarter of 2024 when compared to 2014.”

“The likelihood of economically active youth (including discouraged work seekers) with a matric (12 years of completed schooling) having a job at the start of 2024 roughly resembled the chances of youth without a matric having a job eight to ten years ago.”

She also said that despite ambitious plans from the government for significant expansion in PSET opportunities, the proportion of youth aged 15-24 (or youth aged 15-24 with a matric) enrolled in PSET did not improve much between 2014 and 2024.

“With projected declines in real per student spending on PSET as South Africa addresses high national debt servicing costs, significant growth in PSET is unlikely to occur anytime soon.”

Meanwhile, Sphiwe Masuku at education finance and fund management specialist Fundi, emphasised the important role played by Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) Colleges to address the country’s critical skills needs.

Masuku said there was a widespread underestimation of the value of TVET colleges and with the global job market and career opportunities evolving rapidly, many young South Africans continue making career choices based on societal perceptions of success rather than their natural skillsets and interests.

“There is an increasing trend of students pursuing so-called ‘smart’ career paths – university degrees that are seen as prestigious – while overlooking vocational training that could better match their abilities and offer greater job security in the long-term. This is exacerbating the skills gap in critical sectors of the economy, where artisans and technicians are in high demand but in short supply.”

According to the 2024 National List of Occupations in High Demand published by the Department of Higher Education and Training (DHET), key trades such as electricians, millwrights, boilermakers and plumbers remain in high demand, yet there were insufficient skilled professionals to fill these roles.

“These careers not only offer strong earning potential but are also vital to infrastructure development, manufacturing and the green economy.”

Cape Times